Changes to the UK’s Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) Mandate could add millions of tonnes of carbon emissions, according to analysis by the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU).
The analysis found that even reducing the requirement for electric vehicles (EVs) to account for 70% of new vehicle sales by 2030, from the current 80% target, would produce more emissions than burning all the gas in the Jackdaw field.
A larger reduction to 50% of new vehicle sales could create a “policy cliff edge” in 2035 and result in an additional 147 megatonnes of carbon emissions, the ECIU said. That is equivalent to 58% of the emissions associated with using the oil from the Rosebank field.
Plug-in hybrid concerns
The ECIU also warned that weakening the mandate could encourage manufacturers to sell more plug-in hybrid vehicles. It cited findings that some plug-in hybrids consume five times more fuel than manufacturers claim.
Previous ECIU analysis concluded that weakening the ZEV Mandate could add billions of pounds to the UK’s driving costs. The organisation said EVs are currently hundreds of pounds cheaper to run each year on average, based on prevailing petrol and diesel prices.
The car industry has met the ZEV Mandate in each of the policy’s first two years and is on track to meet the 2026 target, according to the ECIU. In September, EVs accounted for 42% of new car sales in France and 34.6% in Germany.
ECIU criticism of a possible rollback
Jess Ralston, head of energy at the ECIU, said: “The vast majority of oil – 80% – from drilling in the North Sea immediately ships overseas. Even at the less severe end of what the Government is considering, the resulting extra emissions are more than burning all the gas in the Jackdaw field and in a worst-case scenario are similar to an oil field.
“With climate concern high among the public after the extreme heat and persisting drought, and public support for the net zero target up above two-thirds, a decision to U-turn could look very odd.”
Ralston added that weakening the policy would risk higher driving costs, air pollution and carbon emissions, while potentially encouraging the sale of hybrids that use more fuel than claimed.
She said the UK Government could support domestic vehicle manufacturers through the transition to EVs without increasing household driving costs and emissions.